I've been researching the phenomenon of peak oil recently and, like many others have come to the conclusion that among the most obvious highly probable consequences are the crash of the global economy and a new global conflict over the remaining fossil fuels - which most people seem to agree is already underway. In some ways this of course fills me with terror as the socioeconomic consequences for myself and almost all the rest of the world will likely be at best catastrophic. Yet, catastrophes generally precipitate rapid change, and the prospect of this gives me hope. I have come to dislike many aspects of the greedy, materialistic. pathological, hypercapitalist, blatantly unsustainable society I find myself living in, which seems to be ever fueling the fires of its own destruction. Propably when the crises start to hit, I will soon regret such thoughts as the survival instict kicks in... I just hope people/society manage to wake up in time and become more empathic, cooperative and altruistic in terms of their relations with each other and the planet, instead of more selfish, greedy, and self-destructive! And I havent even mentioned the related issue of climate change and govt. attempts at weather manipulation. All of us living in modern societies have the blood of the earth on our hands (which makes me feel like wanting to go + live in a hut somewhere on a remote mountain) and will inevitably face the consequences of our collective actions. Does humanity really have an inbuilt lemming-like characteristic? Maybe this is a long-term species survival mechanism? Or maybe not?

Things are not quite as dire as they may seem or sound in the media. I agree energy will be a problem in the future but we have lots of alternates. They include coal which is in abundant supply, nukes and renewables including biofuels. Then there is the steady gain every year from wind, solar and so on.

We need more conservation, not more corn turned into alcohol. That is just a big swindle and makes food prices shoot up.

The topic of corn to alcohol is a little more complicated than the media protrays. Extracting the sugars from corn to make alcohol leaves a very nutritional food source for livestock as a by-product. And the corn used to make alcohol was never intended for human consumption in the first place. So the argument of ethanol production raising food costs doesn't really occur where we are lead to believe, imo. Taking fields of sweet corn or popcorn out of rotation in favor of field corn for ethanol production would be the only way I can see to really cause a shortage and raise prices. But even that move will produce more field corn and therefore more cattle feed, potentially lowering feeding prices and possibly those in the stores for meat.

Btw, producing alcohol from corn is pretty inefficient when compared to many other plant based alternatives. If ethanol does gain traction, I doubt it will be corn sustaining the charge. But I'm guessing its where the industry started due to the abundance of fiend corn here in Ioway and reasons listed above..

lw

LW, that sounds nice in theory but the facts prove you wrong. Corn prices have in fact risen dramaticly and the experts say it's because of its use in making ethanol. Not only that but other food prices have risen at the same time due to the ripple effects. Beef prices have gone up and the reason given is that cows eat a lot of corn.

You can't brew your corn and eat it too

stoney: Yes, you can eat your corn and brew it too. But humans don't eat field corn.

I've toured ethanol plants, I've watched cows eat the corn AFTER the sugars are extracted. The byproduct is a very nutritional FOOD source for livestock.
Just because prices are rising doesn't mean the rocket scientists feeding you your info has the real scoop.

Corn that produced ethanol is still used as a cost effective feed, due to the high nutritional content. I toured a farm last year and the farmer broke down his feeding cost schedule using the byproduct and showed me on paper that his costs had not gone up substantially.

I find this topic interesting. I'm glad I'm not the only one. But you should do a little research outside of the mainstream media outlets if you want the true or whole story.

lw

Yeah, I guess I should just ignore the fact that corn has more than doubled in price recently. Must be just a coincidence, right? After all, that farmer you talked to must know more than the experts. We don't even need an expert to see that higher demand = higher prices. Everyone knows that (present company excepted).

"humans don't eat field corn"

I ate some today. You need to talk to a different farmer or something. But then again, you are the guy who doesn't believe in global warming or that humans have anything to do with it.

I no little on it, but just to throw it into thw discussion what about abbiogenic oil theory ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin


Booosh

Stoney: Humans don't eat field corn. The type of corn which covers Iowa is inedible for humans. We consume sweet corn. Very little acreage is used for sweet corn production. Most farmers around these parts have have a small patch close to their house.

Have you ever toured an ethanol plant or studied the cost of feeding cattle with the byproduct mentioned above? I doubt it. But hey, let's not let ignorance of the facts get in the way of a good discussion. Maybe we'll both learn something.

Btw, your take on the corn market 's rise and fall is a little simplistic, imo. Many factors affect market prices, just as many affect weather. But simple is easier to sell, eh Simon?

http://www.cypressagrienergy.com/news.htm#byproduct

Ethanol byproduct a cheap animal feed option

Many U.S. beef and dairy producers struggling with this year's soaring costs for traditional animal feeds have turned to distiller's dried grain (DDG) as a cheaper feed alternative, industry sources said.

DDG, a by-product of corn- based Ethanol production has grown in recent years as the Ethanol market has exploded in response to demand for a cleaner -burning fuel addictives.

U.S. Ethanol production is expected to rise to 3.3 billion in 2004 up from 2.13 billion in 2002. DDG has grown in lock-step, with production expected to rise to 6.2 million tons in 2004 from 4.5 million two years ago.

The boost in production has DDG prices this year at a time when costs for more traditional protein feed supplements like soy meal have surged to multiyear highs.

Cash soy meal prices climbed above $320 per ton earlier this year, more than double year - ago levels, as a U.S. soybean shortage after last year's drought set futures soaring.

Cash 48 percent protein soy meal in central Illinois was being offered at $300 to $306 per ton.

In contrast, DDG was selling at around $112 per ton in central Illinois. The wide spread has led many livestock producers - both at home and overseas - to turn to DDG for their feed needs.

"The high price for all the commodities around the world and the world demand is driving the additional use of DDG," said Gary McKinney of the U.S. Grains Council. "DDG is relatively cheap because of the availability, and you have a situation where you don't have to move it as far."

The bulk of U.S. Ethanol production is scattered through the U.S. Corn Belt, making it simple and chap to deliver to dairy, beef and swine producers in Midwestern states.

"It's been discovered to be a good viable feed substitute," said Tracy Snider, spokeswoman for the National Corn Growers Association. "Part of it is due to the Ethanol industry's commitment to not just producing Ethanol, but also producing animal feed. They're really seeing it as a co-product.

DDG's protein content is similar to that of soy meal, Snider said, with the only big difference being DDG's absence of lysine.

About 80 percent of DDG production is used by dairy and beef producers, with an additional 15 percent used for swine feed and the rest going to poultry, according to the NCGA

About 22 to 25 percent of DDG is sold into export markets, with Southeast Asia and South America the prime destination.

"The European export market has not grown. The export material going to Central and South American, the Caribbean and Southeast Asia has grown a lot," said Sean Broderick, a grain merchant at Commodity Specialists in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Traders said this week that Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia bought DDG from the United States for the first time this year. But domestic sources said the continued strong domestic demand would prevent foreign markets from draining U.S stocks.

"Humans don't eat field corn"

Where is it grown then? Basements?

And you are sticking with your theory that the increase in corn prices is just a coincidence? Is that the same coincidence as global temperatures rising along with man made pollutants? An awful lot of coincidences seem to exist in your world.

LOL And you seem to be connecting a few dots that don't exist.

I live in the middle of Iowa. And virtually none of the vast fields surrounding me are used to produce corn that humans consume. Here at corn central, we call that "field" corn. It is dried and then used to feed livestock.

Upon further review, I will admit that the increased production fo ethanol has appeared to cause a slight increase in the short-term corn futures market. However, supply and demand will in all probability lead to more acerage going into corn production to take advantage of surging prices which normally lead to increased supply and falling prices.

stoney: You keep bringing up global warming like you know what you are talking about. But you and I both know we lack the ability to forcast the weather past a few days out.

Btw, I've eaten cheerios for breakfast the last three days and then had a robin sit on a perch near the window and sing me abeautiful song each morning. While a simpleton may decide that eating the cheerios caused the bird to sing, others realize that cause and effect isn't as simple as some would lead us to believe. Don't fret over being duped into believing humans caused global warming, stoney. There are folks way smarter than you who have been duped, too.

lw

Btw2... What do you have against farmers making a living wage from the crops they grow?

lw

"slight increase"

Yeah, like two times what it was. Us simpletons think doubling of prices is a bad thing. I don't mind anyone making a living but the govt with it's pork barrel price supports makes sure of that.

Not only that but ethanol is very low energy. You get far fewer miles per gallon which offsets much of the lower price. Then after you see your food bill has gone up you realize you are probably worse off than before

I don't know much about the economics of corn-to-ethanol production, but a friend of mine who is in that industry claims that sugarcane or sugar beets are a better alternative to corn. At least where those crops can be grown.

Besides, if they use up all the corn making ethanol and feeding cows, how are they gonna continue to saturate every processed food product under the sun with corn syrup. My pancreas is getting out the party hats and horns to celebrate!

Nothing has doubled in price out here on the prairie, stoney. Maybe you should start shopping at the grocery story and stay away from the convenience stores.

lw

Corn isn't the best crop to use for ethanol, that's for sure. I'm guessing if the technology sticks, other crops will eventually replace corn as the source.

lw